Article I: Education Needs to Prepare for VUCA

By Shawn L. Dilly, PhD, Director General of Emirates National Schools

807 words - 2.5 mins read

The world of work is rapidly evolving, and educational institutions must position themselves to produce the outcomes that allow students to thrive and prosper in the future. What remains to be clarified is how education defines this path forward. In a recent publication, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shared an acronym, VUCA, that summarises the unpredictable nature of an intrinsically unknown future. VUCA represents the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of what is to come that perplexes the educational response worldwide.

Compounding this issue is the growing recognition that traditional certifications, degrees and educational approaches are losing relevance due to professional mobility and changing skill demands within the modern knowledge economy. This reality is showcased in a recent OECD report, which found that nearly 40% of OECD countries’ workers were employed in roles outside their field of study1. Another example is a 2016 McGraw Hill poll of US college students, which found that 60% of graduates did not feel that their education prepared them for their careers. These instances are only a sample of the mounting evidence that current educational practices are insufficient, and this is accompanied by growing recognition of the same among businesses and industries, which have consequently been making greater efforts to remedy the talent shortages left by traditional educational models.

These challenges leave education at a crucial crossroads in forming a relevant preparation model for the future. Education must evolve to ensure students graduate with the skills, knowledge and tools to navigate the VUCA confidently. Generating this VUCA are the forces influencing the economy: globalisation, urbanisation, political uncertainty, growing inequality, personal purpose and responsibility, technological change and environmental sustainability. Each force has implications for education and will shape the future environment students will have to traverse.

Unfortunately, many schools have had few, if any, discussions surrounding the critical influences shaping the future. Moreover, policymakers and key decision-makers have yet to produce any meaningful outcomes from examination of these influences. Too often, these talks recognise the growing disparity between the desired results and the outcomes from the traditional model, but involve little to no discussion of whether the goals currently set for schools even align with predictions for the future workplace. It is like a broken record repeating the same demand for high-stakes testing surrounding accountability. It is not that these indicators are not valuable, but they have a minimal relationship to the future success prospects of our students.

Education has seen these accountability models using high-stakes testing for over two decades with only one result. Globally, schools have never met expectations by these metrics. There are many reasons for this, and there is abundant research on the adverse outcomes generated by these existing measures. Trillions of dollars have been spent annually on education, which underpins the push for greater accountability for this investment. However, one must question the logic of investing in a path that has continued to foster the same results and has little relevance to the competencies needed to thrive in the future.

The unfortunate reality is that there are no clear answers to the challenges of VUCA for education. Some clues and predictions can provide general guidance, but only time will provide the necessary clarity. Regrettably, the education system is not known for its speed in implementing changes. Allowing time for the needed clarity will leave millions of students worldwide ill-equipped for the challenges ahead. Schools must recognise the shifts in workplace requirements as they become more common and disruptive influences become more rapid, as innovation and new technologies continue to evolve at even greater rates. Schools must develop a continuous process that monitors and adapts to these changing conditions. The method developed must include business and industry partners to provide guidance on growing trends and budding disruptive transformations that will require changes in educational outcomes. Creating this continuous evolutionary cycle will best enable students to navigate the VUCA and allow them to thrive in an uncertain future.

In my recent book, Schools for This Century and Beyond, I compiled nearly a decade of research and work with higher education, economic development, and business and industry leaders to refine the competencies required to thrive in the future. These future-ready competencies (FRCs) are essential for students to circumnavigate the impending VUCA. Consequently, schools need to focus on these competencies and modify accountability models to prioritise them as desired outcomes. More information on the FRCs will be shared in upcoming articles, including their connection to economic forces and the navigation of the precarious and challenging future that awaits young people.